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The FTSE 100 contains a very limited number of stocks that have AI exposure. But as we’ve seen in recent days, shares across the board are in danger of sinking as worries over a tech bubble grow.
Could stock markets experience a full-blown crash? It’s not out of the question, with Deutsche Bank saying recent share price weakness “echoes what we saw in 2000 as the dot-com bubble started to burst“.
History repeating?
The German bank served up some interesting food for thought for investors. It noted that
equities started to fall from the March 2000 as tech stocks saw significant declines [though] consumer staples, utilities and healthcare rallied significantly over the months ahead.
But that’s where the good news largely ended. After commenting that “a market can absorb a prolonged rotation without obvious index-level stress for some time,” it added that
the longer and deeper the sell-off in a dominant sector becomes, the harder it is for the broader index to withstand the drag, and the continued losses for tech in 2000 ultimately meant the S&P 500 ended that year over 10% lower.
Even the non-tech-heavy FTSE 100 dropped 14% over the course of 2000. Could we be about to see history repeating itself?
Supercharging returns
Accurately predicting the near-term movements of stock markets is notoriously difficult. But given the heightened level of investor tension right now, a market correction could well be around the corner.
Seeing the value of one’s portfolio plummet isn’t a nice experience. But I won’t be panicking if I see share prices begin to sour. Nor will I be selling everything and running for the hills. Instead, I’ll be looking for quality stocks to buy that may have crashed in the mayhem.
This is because I buy shares to hold over the long term. And history shows us that stock markets have always rebounded strongly over time. Past performance isn’t a guarantee of future returns, but buying oversold shares after a crash can supercharge an investor’s eventual returns.
Three FTSE shares on my radar
The FTSE 100’s 19% rise over the last year has left a lot of top stocks looking expensive. My plan is to pile in if they slump in value in the coming weeks or months.
Unilever is one share I’ll be looking to buy. The consumer goods giant trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times, above the 10-year average of 17. I’ll also consider snapping up AstraZeneca — its P/E for 2026 is 25.1, miles above the long-term average of 18.7.
But number one on my list is HSBC (LSE:HSBA). I already its hold shares, but the firm’s high valuation has discouraged me from adding more. A 40% price rise over six months has pushed its price-to-book (P/B) ratio to 1.6. That’s double the 10-year average of 0.8, and shows the bank trading at a premium to the value of its assets.
The bank’s dividend yield has also dropped to 4.4% from the long-term reading of 6.5%.
HSBC shares could experience some volatility if the stock market crashes and the global economy plunges. But I’m confident it will rise strongly over the long term, powered by rampant profits growth in its Asian markets.
