Today’s Release Could Be the ‘Super Bowl of Jobs Reports’

What Are Fed Officials Looking For In Today’s Data?

FROM 2 minutes ago

Officials at the Federal Reserve are increasingly concerned about a possible surge in unemployment. Among the recent red flags about the job market: employers had fewer openings in December than at any time since 2020. 

Economists look at job openings as a leading indicator of future job growth. For the Fed, it’s especially important because keeping employment high is one of the central bank’s two mandates from Congress. The other is to keep inflation under control.

Fed officials have been divided about whether to cut the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to help the job market or keep it higher for longer to fight inflation, which remains above the Fed’s target. The Fed chose to hold rates flat at its January meeting and is expected to do so again at its March meeting. Before that, the Fed cut the rate by a quarter point at each of its three previous meetings.

To read more about Fed officials’ recent thoughts on the job market, click here.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Do Economists Expect From Today’s Report?

FROM 11 minutes ago

Analysts at Bank of America Global Research said today may be the “Super Bowl of jobs reports” because so much attention is being paid to the numbers. 

Forecasters expect U.S. employers likely added 55,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. That would compare with the 50,000 jobs added in December.

As in recent months, job gains are expected to be concentrated in health care, with careers in other fields becoming harder to find as employers remain in a no-hiring mindset. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4%, a relatively low level by historical standards.

To read more about economists’ predictions, click here.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Is In A Typical Jobs Report?

FROM 11 minutes ago

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Employment Situation Summary every month.

The report estimates how many jobs were added across the country during the month, as well as the average number of hours employees worked weekly and their average hourly earnings. This data is generated from household and employer surveys.

The government’s jobs report is considered the gold standard among economists for measuring the health of the labor market and, in turn, the broader U.S. economy.

To learn more about the monthly report, click here.