Gold strengthens after improved jobs report and mixed war news keeps showing up in conversations for a reason. The story below covers what is actually happening, where the trade-offs sit, and what a careful reader should take from it.
Gold (GC=F) June futures opened at $4,648.60 per troy ounce on Monday, 0.7% lower than Thursday’s closing price of $4,679.70. The gold price rose above $4,700 in early trading. As of 7 a.m. ET, the price of gold was $4,720.
Gold rebounded Monday morning after a positive jobs report on Friday and mixed news about the Iran war over the weekend. The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, the highest monthly gain in nonfarm payroll in more than a year. The positive report likely reduces pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates.
Meanwhile, President Trump renewed threats against Iran as diplomatic efforts to end the war continue. The U.S. threats involved attacks on Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran did not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway previously transported 20% of the global oil supply. Its closure has been a major contributor to higher oil prices. Meanwhile, Iran has confirmed receipt of a ceasefire proposal from Pakistan.
Sustained higher oil prices plus a recovering U.S. jobs market may translate to lingering high interest rates. High borrowing costs suppress gold demand and pricing because the yellow metal does not pay interest.
The opening price of gold futures on Monday was 0.7% lower than Thursday’s close. Here’s a look at how the opening gold price has changed versus last week, month, and year:
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One week ago: +3.7%
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One month ago: -9.2%
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One year ago: +49.4%
Gold’s year-over-year growth was 95.6% on Jan. 29.
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The price of gold can be quoted in multiple forms because the precious metal is traded in different ways. The two main gold prices investors should know about are spot prices and gold futures prices.
Learn more: How to invest in gold in 4 steps
The spot price of gold is the current market price per ounce for physical gold as a raw material, sometimes called spot gold. Gold ETFs that are backed by physical gold assets generally track the gold spot price.
The spot price is lower than what you’d pay to buy gold coins, bullion, or jewelry, since your total price will include a markup called the gold premium that covers refining, marketing, dealer overhead, and profits. The spot price is more like a wholesale price, and the spot price plus the gold premium is the retail price.
Learn more: Thinking of buying gold? Here’s what investors should watch for.
Gold futures are contracts that mandate a gold transaction at a specific price on a future date. These contracts are exchange-traded and more liquid than physical gold. They settle on the contract expiration date or earlier, either financially or via delivery. A financial cash settlement involves paying the contract’s profit or loss in cash. Delivery means the seller sends physical gold to the buyer for the contracted price.
Supply and demand determine gold spot prices and gold futures prices. Factors that influence gold supply and demand include:
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Geopolitical events
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Central bank buying trends
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Inflation
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Interest rates
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Mining production
Learn more: Who decides what gold is worth? How prices are determined.
Whether you’re tracking the price of gold since last month or last year, the price-of-gold chart below shows the precious metal’s steady upward climb in value.
Learn more: Gold alternatives? How to invest in silver, platinum, and palladium.
Tim Manni edited this article.
