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The stock market has been all over the place today (23 March). First thing, the FTSE 100 nosedived and entered correction territory, meaning its tumble from a recent peak was 10%+. But as I type, the index has bounced back strongly.
The reason for this chaos, of course, is the highly unpredictable President Trump, who has threatened to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure while also trying to reassure everyone the conflict will soon be over.
With the outcome uncertain and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked, more investors now expect high inflation, interest rate hikes, and perhaps even a recession. So the risks are multiplying and the market has been reflecting this.
Now, I invested all the way through Trump’s first term in office, between 2017 and 2021. And that period also encompassed the outbreak of the pandemic, which likewise caused huge fear and uncertainty.
Yet the fact remains that the FTSE 100 is higher now — even after the recent pullback — than it was five years ago. And even if the conflict tips the global economy into recession, I fully expect the Footsie to move higher in future when markets settle down.
London could benefit
Indeed, the erratic policymaking by Trump could even benefit the London Stock Exchange. That’s the view of analysts at Berenberg, whose survey of over 400 global investors found more than a third planned to increase their exposure to UK stocks in the next year.
On the whole, UK stocks are cheaper than those across the pond. Many pay a decent dividend and are defensive in nature, while not exposed to potential AI disruption.
Mid-cap growth stock
One FTSE 250 share I’ve got my eye on is leading sports nutrition and supplements maker Applied Nutrition (LSE:APN). In its interim results (released today) for the six months to 31 January, it reported excellent progress.
Revenue surged 55.6% to £74.5m, while adjusted pre-tax profit was up 53.7% to £20.9m. And management left its annual revenue outlook unchanged, for about £140m, representing 30% year-on-year growth.
However, the situation in the Middle East is impacting shipping routes and its ability to serve customers there. As a result, management expects “some reduction in volumes into the region during the second half“.
The risk here then is that the Iran situation worsens, disrupting shipping routes and purchasing activities in the Middle East. This could hurt sales growth.
But taking a longer-term view, I like what I see here. The massive global sports nutrition, health, and wellness market is being boosted by tens of millions of people losing weight through GLP-1 drugs.
A high-protein diet is being recommended to GLP-1 users by doctors. So it’s encouraging to see that Applied Nutrition has launched a range of high-protein food with Morrisons. Early sales have been strong.
According to a recent McKinsey study, 84% and 79% of consumers respectively in the US and UK now see wellness as a top or important priority. Indeed, it’s their second-highest personal priority behind family.
Crucially, most now view supplements as a necessity rather than a luxury. So I think the company could continue growing even during an economic downturn. Its products cater for elite athletes, dedicated gym-goers, and everyday health-conscious consumers.
The stock is trading reasonably, at around 17 times forward earnings. I’m tempted.
