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The last 12 months have been pretty rough for Greggs’ (LSE:GRG) share price. A combination of slowing growth, softer trading conditions, rising costs and, subsequently, profit warnings has crushed the bakery chain’s market-cap in half. And with continued uncertainty on the horizon, institutional analysts have been revising their share price targets.
So what are the experts now projecting for Greggs’ shares for 2026? And could the recent weakness actually be a hidden buying opportunity?
Inspecting new price forecasts
As of mid-September, expert opinions about Greggs continue to be mixed, with some projecting that an enormous recovery is on the horizon. In contrast, others point to more trouble ahead. However, on average, analysts are projecting that the Greggs share price will reach 2,145p by this time next year.
Compared to where the stock’s trading today, that actually suggests a 38% potential gain could emerge in the next 12 months. Yet it’s also important to note that this forecast’s been revised down from around 2,391p in March. And that itself was another downward adjustment from an earlier projection of 2,927p.
In other words, experts are growing increasingly cautious. And if more bad news emerges for Greggs, another cut to today’s forecast could emerge, leaving investors disappointed.
Potential for a comeback
Despite the increasingly bearish sentiment, there are still several factors surrounding Greggs’ business that analysts are optimistic about.
The company continues to be a highly popular brand among British consumers, protecting and expanding its food-on-the-go market share. Management’s decision to expand Greggs’ digital presence also appears to be bearing fruit with its loyalty programme and partnerships with food delivery platforms (such as Just Eat and Uber Eats) opening new growth avenues.
At the same time, while the company’s definitely navigating a rough patch, the highly cash-generative nature of its business model means its balance sheet remains robust enough to service debt while also funding efficiency investments.
With that in mind, the stock certainly seems to hold some welcome recovery potential, especially since its price-to-earnings ratio now sits at just 11.1. That’s less than half the restaurant industry average of 23.7 and firmly below its long-term average of 20.3.
Time to buy?
The negative reaction that drove Greggs’ share price down, while understandable, seems to be a bit overblown. There’s no arguing that the company’s recent performance has been disappointing, but with management experimenting with new products and efficiency upgrades, the tide could start turning, opening the door to more positive momentum.
With that in mind, I think investors may want to take a closer look at this enterprise and research the recovery potential of the Greggs share price a bit further, although it’s not the only UK stock with recovery potential on my radar today.
