S&P 500 Closes Lower for 5th Straight Day Ahead of Powell’s Speech; Walmart Stock Slides After Earnings

Biggest S&P 500 Movers on Thursday

45 minutes ago

Decliners

• Shares of First Solar (FSLR) plunged 7%, leading losses on the S&P 500 after President Trump said the U.S. wouldn’t approve solar or wind projects, citing high electricity costs in states that utilize the renewable energy technologies. Other solar stocks including Sunrun (RUN), Enphase Energy (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG), also fell.
• Walmart (WMT) shares dropped 4.5% after the retail giant reported quarterly profits that came in below analysts’ expectations. While the company grew revenue nearly 5% year-over-year and comparable store sales 4.3%, its operating income fell more than 8%. Walmart raised its outlook for the full fiscal year.

• Allstate (ALL) shares fell 3.3%. The drop followed a monthly report in which the insurer reported catastrophe losses of $184 million or $145 million after tax for July 2025, citing a number of wind and hail events. 

Advancers

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) shares surged nearly 15%, continuing to move like a “meme stock.” The newly merged company last week said it acquired the programming rights to fighting league UFC.
• Packaging Corp of America (PKG) shares jumped 6.2% and rival packing firm Smurfit WestRock (SW) gained 4.1% after International Paper (IP) announced business changes including plant closures, which could lower the supply of paper materials and push prices higher for packaging materials. International Paper shares added about 2%. 
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares rose 3.7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company’s stock to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” citing optimism over growth from the firm’s artificial intelligence and other products.

–Terry Lane

Echoes of Last Year as Powell Set to Speak

1 hr 17 min ago

As was the case last year, Wall Street will keenly watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic conference, looking for signs that the central bank is about to cut interest rates. Last year, he delivered, but this year could be a different story.

Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Powell could discuss the Fed’s long-term strategy for monetary policy, the central bank’s independence, or the outlook for interest rates in the next few months. In the latter respect, the speech has similar significance to one he gave at Jackson Hole in 2024.

A year ago, as today, the economy seemed to be at a turning point.

The rapid price increases of the post-pandemic era had simmered down, the job market was solid, and most forecasts called for a “soft landing” rather than an economic crash. But then, as now, some red flags were starting to wave in the job market: a worrisome uptick in the unemployment rate sparked fears of a surge in joblessness.

To Powell and the other members of the central bank’s policy committee, the time was right for the Fed to start easing its high interest rates, which had been in place for more than a year. High rates had done their job of quelling inflation, and it was time to boost the economy with lower borrowing costs that encourage hiring.

Powell used his Jackson Hole speech to say the Fed was pivoting and would lower the fed funds rate from a two-decade high at its policy committee’s next meeting. He said in very clear terms that inflation was more under control and the Fed would soon cut interest rates.

“The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased,” Powell said.

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

The Fed went on to cut interest rates by a full percentage point over its next three meetings.

A year later, experts are once again worried about the health of the job market after a spate of worrisome data, and financial markets are once again looking to Powell for a hint about possible rate cuts at the September meeting.

This time, it’s far from obvious that Powell will support rate cuts.

Back in 2024, the data was pulling the Fed toward rate cuts. This time, it’s pulling it in two directions: the tariff-related price hikes are starting to materialize, and the job market is showing signs of weakness.

Experts have said there’s a good chance Powell chooses to keep his options open instead of laying his cards on the table like he did last time.

–Diccon Hyatt

What Powell Speech Could Mean for Bitcoin

2 hr 1 min ago

Bitcoin traders have been in profit-taking mode ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech on Friday, betting on an upset.

That’s evident in the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, which has fallen about 10% from its all-time high price of $124,290 on Aug. 14 as of Thursday afternoon. While consensus expectations continue to anticipate a rate cut in September, digital asset traders appear to be positioned for Powell to adopt a hawkish tone tomorrow and not signal that a cut is likely.

The Coinbase-Binance spread, or the price discrepancy in spot bitcoin (BTCUSD) between the U.S.’s largest publicly-traded exchange and the world’s largest exchange, moved into discount territory, which indicated “strong US spot selling,” according to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy. “It does seem anecdotally that the consensus is that Jay Powell will be net hawkish,” Farrell said on Tuesday, adding that “risk aversion” was also indicated in bitcoin options pricing across time horizons.1

Just as Powell’s tone could make or break the stock-market rally, it could blunt some of the momentum that has been driving bitcoin prices higher. Lower interest rates generally drive investors to take more risk, which would boost appetites for stocks and other speculative assets like crypto.

The upside is that the weakness seen in the days leading up to the speech could put in a bottom before the big event, Farrell said. In other words: Sell the rumor, buy the news.

Meanwhile, a barometer for U.S. monetary policy is signaling that a September cut isn’t in the bag. Futures contract traders now place a 73% probability (down from 92% a week ago) on the Fed lowering its target rate by a quarter of a percentage point, per CME FedWatch.

Ned Davis Research analysts Philippe Mouls and Pat Tschosik are “still bullish” on bitcoin. “Typically, bitcoin has a major run-up or ‘blow off top’ before every major decline. We have not had that yet, however, which leads us to believe the current ‘secular bull’ for bitcoin is not yet over.”

That said, they’re keeping an eye on Coinbase crypto trading volumes skewing to other crypto — at 55%, non-bitcoin assets have the highest share on the platform since the fourth quarter of 2021. The other factor making the analysts “nervous”: The world’s largest crypto hasn’t experienced a 50% drawdown for 661 days, roughly two months away from breaking its record of 738 days.

If bitcoin prices bounce in the short-term, stocks may soon follow. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said on social media Wednesday: “Crypto $BTC and $ETH are leading indicators to equities. Both bottomed yesterday evening = stocks bottom by Friday.”

–Crystal Kim

How Might Stocks React to Powell’s Speech?

3 hr 19 min ago

Wall Street was on edge Thursday as investors awaited what is bound to be a pivotal policy speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. 

Traders are positioning themselves accordingly. Options pricing suggests investors expect the S&P 500 to move about 0.8% in either direction through the end of this week. That’s nearly twice the S&P 500’s average daily move over the past month. 

At last year’s Jackson Hole, Powell declared the Fed was ready to begin cutting interest rates more than a year after policymakers hiked rates for the 11th and final time in their post-pandemic policy tightening campaign. 

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said. “With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market.”

It was the news Wall Street was hoping for. The S&P 500 jumped more than 1% to trade just shy of an all-time high. Though for investors last year, seeing was believing; it wasn’t until mid-September, when the Fed cut rates for the first time, that the index finally broke its previous record. 

Evercore ISI analysts warned in a note on Sunday that Powell’s speech could deliver stocks a rough patch if Wall Street finds his comments inadequately dovish. “For a market that was eager to embrace ’50 in Sept’, a balanced view could catalyze a near term -7% to -15% pullback into October,” the analysts wrote, referring to recent speculation that the Fed could make a jumbo, 50 basis point (bps) cut next month. 

Deutsche Bank economists are also worried about Wall Street’s high hopes. In a note earlier this week, they expressed concern that Powell’s comments, which they expect to be “more balanced” than his last statement in July, “could create uncertainty about September cut prospects, at least relative to current elevated pricing.”

But expectations and stock prices have moderated in recent days. The S&P 500 fell in each of the last four sessions. If the index declines on Thursday, it will mark its longest losing streak this year. 

And in the last week, traders have become less confident of any rate cut, let alone a jumbo one, in September. Federal funds futures trading data put the odds of a 25 bps cut at about 72% on Thursday, down from 92% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool

–Colin Laidley

Boeing in Talks to Sell 500 Planes to China, Report Says

7 hours ago

Boeing (BA) is reportedly in discussions to sell as many as 500 jets to China in what would be a breakthrough for the aircraft manufacturing giant.

Bloomberg News, which reported the news, said that the two sides are still working out the details, including the number and kinds of aircraft included. However, Chinese officials have already begun asking domestic airlines how many planes they want, the report said.

Boeing has only made a handful of sales to Chinese carriers over the past few years. The sale would be a key element of a potential trade deal that has been in the works between the Trump administration and Beijing. 

Bloomberg said the talks have been under way for years, and the countries were close to an agreement when then-President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in San Francisco in 2023.

Boeing shares were little changed in recent trading. The stock has gained 27% since the start of the year, making it the second-biggest gainer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, trailing only AI chips giant Nvidia (NVDA) slightly.

–Bill McColl

HP Enterprise Rises as Morgan Stanley Upgrades Amid AI Boom

7 hr 50 min ago

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares advanced Thursday on an upgrade by Morgan Stanley, which sees increased corporate spending on the computer processing hardware maker’s artificial intelligence and other products.

Morgan Stanley raised its rating to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” and boosted the price target to $28 from $22. The stock was up about 3% at just under $22 in recent trading.

In a note to clients, the analysts said that “our checks signaled healthy enterprise spending across the board in the quarter, led by anything AI compute or networking related, followed by client devices (strong PC refresh), and then servers/storage, with networking growth inflecting positively for the first time in several quarters.”

They added that their research “leaves us positive on the potential for top and bottom line outperformance in the July quarter across the group.”

Along with the Hewlett Packard Enterprise moves, Morgan Stanley also increased the price targets for Dell Technologies (DELL) and NetApp (NTAP). 

With today’s gains, shares of Hewlett Packard Enterprise nudged into positive territory this year.

–Bill McColl

Coty Plunges 20% After Reporting Surprise Loss

8 hr 48 min ago

Coty (COTY) shares lost a fifth of their value in early trading Thursday, a day after the cosmetics maker posted a surprise loss and gave weak guidance as retailers pulled back on orders.

The company behind its namesake brand, Max Factor and many others reported a fiscal fourth-quarter net loss attributable to shareholders of $72.1 million and an adjusted decline of $0.05 per share. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for net income of $37.6 million, and an adjusted profit of $0.01 per share. Revenue fell 8% year-over-year to $1.25 billion, but that was better than forecasts. Like-for-like sales dropped 9%.

CEO Sue Nabi said that during the fiscal year, retailers were “acting with caution in the current environment.” Nabi noted along with retailer restocking, Coty’s results were hurt by “softness” in U.S. demand, pressure in the mass cosmetics market, and slower fragrance sales after a strong fiscal 2024. 

Looking ahead, the company said “broader macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty is fueling cautious retailer ordering and a more promotional competitive environment.” It sees current quarter like-for-like sales sinking 6% to 8%, and second quarter like-for-like sales down 3% to 5%. The company added that it anticipates those sales will return to positive gains in the second half of the fiscal year.

Coty shares were down 21% in recent trading, pushing the stock’s year-to-date decline to 45%.

–Bill McColl

Walmart Slides as Profit Misses Analysts’ Estimates

10 hr 5 min ago

Shares of Walmart (WMT) fell 3% before the opening bell Thursday after the giant retailer reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter profit below expectation. 

The Bentonville, Ark.-based firm posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, below the $0.73 expectation of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. Revenue increased nearly 5% year-over-year to $177.40 billion, ahead of the $175.97 billion consensus.

U.S. comparable sales growth came in at 4.3%, above the 4.1% projection. Global eCommerce sales rose 25%, “led by store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace,” while analysts were looking for 17.2% growth.

However, operating income fell more than 8%, “affected by discrete legal and restructuring items,” Walmart said.

Walmart raised its fiscal 2026 outlooks for revenue growth and adjusted EPS, to 3.75% to 4.75% and $2.52 to $2.62, respectively. For the current quarter, it sees revenue growth of 3.75% to 4.75% and adjusted EPS of $0.58 to $0.60, both above consensus estimates.

Walmart shares entered Thursday up about 14% this year at $102.57, with all 12 of the analysts tracked by Visible Alpha with recent assessments recommending buying them. 

“Net-net, we see some potential small pressure on the shares but the report in no way fundamentally alters the bull case, in our view,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

–Aaron Rennie

Major Index Futures Point to Lower Open

10 hr 37 min ago

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.4%.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%.

Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2%.