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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The “One Big, Beautiful Bill” is expected to lower the amount owed and increase refunds for 2025 taxes, which are filed in 2026.
- Preliminary data on the 2026 filing season show tax refunds are higher than at the same time last year.
- The IRS is falling behind on processing tax returns compared to the 2025 filing season.
Tax refunds so far this filing season are higher than last year.
The “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” passed in July, made more than 100 changes that impact 2025 taxes, which are filed during the 2026 filing season. New tax credits and deductions, such as no tax on tips and overtime and an additional senior deduction, are expected to provide taxpayers with increased refunds or a lower tax burden.
Estimates for how much the average tax refund will increase in 2026 range from $475 to $1,000. The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy think tank, estimates the average tax refund will be about $3,800. That is $748 higher than the average refund during the last filing season, the foundation found.
Preliminary IRS statistics from the first couple of weeks of the 2026 filing season show the average refund amount is about $225, nearly 11% higher than at the same time last year.
| Refund Amounts In Feb. 7, 2025 Compared to Feb. 6, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | % Change Year over Year | |
| Total number of refunds | 8,054,000 | 7,403,000 | -8.1% |
| Total amount refunded | $16.64 billion | $16.95 billion | 1.9% |
| Average refund amount | $2,065 | $2,290 | 10.9% |
These preliminary numbers do not include refunds from tax returns that claim the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit. To help detect and prevent errors or fraud, the IRS holds returns claiming these tax credits until mid-February, and taxpayers can expect their refunds by March 2.
Once all returns are processed, the average refund amount will generally increase, the IRS said. However, changes between filing seasons are typically greater at the beginning of the year and will even out as more returns are submitted, the IRS said.
For example, the average refund at the same time in the 2025 filing season was 18.6% higher than the 2024 filing season. However, when the 2025 filing season ended in October, the average refund was only 1.6% higher than in 2024, according to IRS data.
The IRS Is Off To a Sluggish Start
Last year, the IRS cut about 27% of its workforce and went through numerous leadership changes. The staffing changes, combined with the introduction of new tax laws through the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” have the potential to disrupt the 2026 filing season and delay refunds, the Taxpayer Advocate Service said last month.
So far, the IRS has processed almost 2.9 million fewer tax returns, or 12.3% less, than at the same time last year.
| Returns Processed in Feb. 7, 2025 Compared to Feb. 6, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | % Change Year over Year | |
| Total returns received | 23,589,000 | 22,351,000 | -5.2% |
| Total returns processed | 23,515,000 | 20,623,000 | -12.3% |
While the IRS has received about 1.2 million fewer returns so far in the 2026 filing season than at the same time in 2025, it is still processing returns more slowly.
In early February 2025, the IRS had processed almost 99.7% of the tax returns it had received. To compare, the IRS has processed nearly 92.3% of the tax returns it has received this February.
The Taxpayer Advocate Service expects a smooth 2026 filing season for most taxpayers, but those who need help deciphering new tax laws or who file their returns incorrectly could experience delays.
“The IRS emphasizes it continues to see a strong filing season with refunds continuing to reach taxpayers as planned,” the IRS said in a press release.
