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The Moonpig Group (LSE:MOON) share price was up over 6% by early afternoon today (17 September) after the online cards and gifting group issued its latest trading update ahead of its annual general meeting.
The magnitude of this change doesn’t surprise me. As the table below shows, more often than not, whenever the group announces its results or gives the market a progress report, its share price moves significantly (up and down).
| Date | Announcement | Share price movement (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 26 June 2025 | FY25 final results | -9.2 |
| 3 April 2025 | Trading update | +1.8 |
| 10 December 2024 | HY25 results | -14.6 |
| 14 March 2024 | Trading update | -3.3 |
| 27 June 2023 | FY24 final results | +15.2 |
| 5 December 2023 | HY24 results | -10.2 |
| 29 June 2023 | FY23 final results | +4.0 |
| 30 March 2023 | Trading update | +10.7 |
A positive outlook
Today, investors were told that the group, which operates in the UK and the Netherlands, was on course to deliver earnings for the year ending 30 April 2026 (FY26) in line with expectations.
It says it continues to deliver constant revenue growth of approximately 10% a year. And adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) is expected to grow at a “mid-single digit percentage rate”.
More importantly, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecast to grow by 8%-12%. During FY25, it reported EPS of 15p. If the group’s prediction is right, this means EPS for FY26 could be between 16.2p and 18p, implying a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7-13. In my opinion, anywhere within this range seems reasonable for a high-margin internet-based business.
| Financial year | Revenue (£m) | Adjusted basic earnings per share (pence) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 350.1 | 15.0 |
| 2024 | 341.1 | 12.7 |
| 2023 | 320.1 | 13.1 |
| 2022 | 304.3 | 9.3 |
| 2021 | 368.2 | 6.1 |
The group’s strong cash flow means it’s recently started paying a dividend. And it’s been repurchasing its own shares.
Much of its progress has been attributed to customers “embracing our innovative personalisation features to express themselves, with adoption continuing to rise — around 50% of all cards now including options such as AI-generated stickers, audio or video messages, or personalised handwriting”.
All in all, the group appears to be in good shape.
Pros and cons
But since the pandemic, its share price has been in decline. And then there’s the volatility noted above. The stock has a five-year beta value of 1.25. This means if the market moves by 10% (up or down) then, on average, the Moonpig share price will change by 25%. This is unlikely to appeal to cautious investors.
However, analysts appear to have bought in to the growth story. The average of their 12-month price targets is 310p — even after today’s bounce, this is 47% higher than the current price.
And while I do have some doubts as to whether the group’s activities could be easily replicated by others, it has a long track record of EPS growth. The group claims that only 15% of card purchases are made online so there’s plenty of scope to expand further.
Its online-only business model means it has a lower cost base than its high street competitors. And it must be good at what it does because over 90% of its business comes from repeat customers.
For these reasons, I think Moonpig Group shares are worthy of consideration. But anyone taking a position needs to be braced for some pretty big share price swings whenever it releases its results or issues a trading update.
