Bernstein just threw fresh fuel on Eli Lilly’s (LLY) never-ending rally, as the firm lifted its price target on the stock to $1,300 from $1,100.
For perspective, that’s an 18% bump compared to the old target, while representing a 21% to 22% upside compared to Lilly’s current stock price.
Analyst Courtney Breen feels Wall Street still isn’t factoring in how massive the company’s next wave of GLP-1 catalysts could be.
She feels Lilly’s incredible leap into the trillion-dollar club, as reported by Reuters, wasn’t the top, and that 2026 could be the turning point where its illustrious story transitions into genuine “beat-and-raise” momentum.
Also, orforglipron’s approaching launch, White House policy is moving towards broader coverage, while tirzepatide has evolved into becoming a multi-indication platform.
Hence, Breen sees a setup offering a ton of upside.
Moreover, it’s important to note that per Tipranks, Breen carries a standout 94% success rate, with 32 of her 34 stock calls turning a profit.
On top of that, her recommendations deliver a strong +21.5% average return per rating, positioning her among the top tier of Wall Street analysts.
Bernstein’s Courtney Breen lifted Eli Lilly’s price target significantly, citing stronger GLP-1 catalysts ahead.Photo by NurPhoto on Getty Images
Bernstein analyst Breen’s bullishness on Eli Lilly primarily rests on what she dubs as an “incredibly rich” catalyst path that stretches more than two years.
Most of it is down to how much earnings power Mr. Market hasn’t modeled into the stock.
At the center of it is Lilly’s oral GLP-1 orforglipron, which Breen feels will fuel the next leg of expansion for the company.
More Medicare/Medicaid
That’s in part due to a conducive U.S. policy backdrop that has shifted under President Donald Trump’s GLP-1 deal, along with growing global reimbursement channels.
Breen and her team developed a financial model slicing Medicare, Medicaid, commercial, and cash-pay demand on a quarterly schedule running through 2027 and annually to 2030.
The results showed that consensus was still too conservative on volumes and potential sales.
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The big breakthrough is expected to be in 2026.
That’s when orforglipron moves from promise to profit engine, with estimated sales at a superb $1.8 billion, which is more than 3 times the Street’s view of $550 million.
What’s even more impressive is that Breen stresses that these lofty numbers are U.S.-only assumptions based on nearly 80,000 weekly scripts in the oral obesity market.
Weight-loss drugs have effectively been the stock market’s new rocket fuel of late, and it seems the trajectory isn’t slowing down any time soon.
The science behind the GLP-1 (i.e, weight loss drugs) boom is simple.
These drugs basically turn down the volume knob on hunger while adding speed bumps to your stomach.
These medicines mimic the gut hormones released after we eat, telling our brains we’re full a lot quicker while slowing down gastric emptying and improving insulin release in the process.
The result is that we get fewer cravings, along with steady weight loss over time.
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Moreover, estimates suggest that we’re just getting started in this growth journey.
For instance, Morgan Stanley estimates branded obesity drugs generated a whopping $6 billion in 2023 and nearly $15 billion in 2024, according to Morgan Stanley. Also, it forecasts the global market to reach $105 billion by 2030 and possibly $150 billion at peak around 2035.
Similarly, JPMorgan sees GLP-1s for diabetes and obesity collectively contributing $100 billion by 2030.
Injectables Eli Lilly – Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Novo Nordisk – Ozempic (semaglutide) for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity; helped push Novo’s obesity-care sales alone to DKK 65.1 billion ($9.5 billion) in 2024.
Pills (in market or late-stage pipeline) Novo Nordisk – oral semaglutide (Rybelsus/high-dose 50 mg): In the OASIS-1 trial, 50 mg once-daily oral semaglutide resulted in nearly a 15% average weight loss (17% in adherent patients). Eli Lilly – orforglipron: A once-daily small-molecule GLP-1 pill; Phase 3 data show around 9 to 10% average weight loss over 72 weeks versus 2 to 3% with placebo.
Lilly built its way up to the trillion-dollar club, achieving the feat on November 21, spearheaded by its robust GLP-1 engine.
The company’s weight-loss breakthrough has effectively become a full-blown metabolic-health franchise, led by tirzepatide’s dominance, along with a string of clinical wins.
The numbers explain why investors bought into its story, with soaring sales, tech-style margins, and a pipeline that continues growing its addressable market.
Now with an oral GLP-1 on deck, the flywheel that just pushed Lilly to $1 trillion is still accelerating.
Record-smashing GLP-1 sales: In Q3 2025, BioPharma Dive reported tirzepatide products posted $10 billion+, including $6.5 billion from Mounjaro (+109% year over year) and $3.6 billion from Zepbound (+185% YoY), lifting total sales 54% year over year to $17.6 billion.
A pipeline that kept enlarging the market:According to JAMA Network, Zepbound’s OSA approval (sleep apnea) formed a brand new reimbursable category, while tapping a population estimated near 1 billion people globally.
Tech-style profitability: EPS hit $7.02, margins moved into the mid-80s, while its valuation jumped nearly 200% in the past three years.
Next-gen expansion: Orforglipron’s strong Phase 3 data positions Lilly to dominate both the injectable and oral GLP-1 markets heading into 2030.
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