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Warsh believes AI will lower inflation, but he faces an uphill battle convincing the bond market
Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh believes that strong productivity growth from the adoption of artificial intelligence will lower inflation as production costs decline (once the Iran war is resolved), allowing for lower short-term and long-term interest rates. Thus, he is basically a supply-sider.
However, we do not believe that Warsh will be able to convince the other members of the Fed’s policy-making committee to agree to his views. Also, the bond market is not likely to agree, either, which means that even if Warsh is able to lower short-term rates through Fed action, he will not be able to convince the bond market.
Long-term interest rates such as the 10-year Treasury note have risen, not declined, since the Fed started cutting short-term interest rates in September 2024. Long-term rates are not likely to decline this year unless the Iran war causes the economy to suffer.
– David Payne
David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/Global Insight, and an economist in the Chief Economist’s Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Warsh promises Fed independence will remain intact
Kevin Warsh does not feel that the Federal Reserve’s independence is at risk when President Trump repeatedly calls for the central bank to lower interest rates.
“I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials — presidents, senators, or members of the House — state their views on interest rates,” Warsh wrote in his prepared opening statement for Tuesday’s testimony, as reported by Politico. “Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners.”
Warsh also states that he is committed to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment “without excuse or equivocation, argument or anguish.”
– Karee Venema
When does Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair end?
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair is officially up on May 15, 2026.
Powell’s term on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors does not expire until January 31, 2028. While he has not confirmed if he will stay on the board through early 2028, he said he will not leave until the Department of Justice’s investigation into him is “well and truly over, with transparency and finality.”
However, President Trump said earlier this month that he won’t drop the probe into Powell and threatened to fire him if he doesn’t resign once Warsh is confirmed.
– Karee Venema
Why has Sen. Tillis vowed to block Warsh’s nomination?
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis from North Carolina, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has vowed to block any Federal Reserve nomination until a Department of Justice probe into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved.
In January, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas and threatened a criminal indictment related to Chair Powell’s congressional testimony last June about a multi-year project to renovate historic buildings.
In early April, Chief Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia blocked those subpoenas, writing that there is “abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will.”
Boasberg also rejected a request from Jeanine Pirro, U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, to reconsider the ruling. Pirro has until early May to appeal.
“This is about a bedrock principle of Fed independence,” Tillis told reporters in March. “The reason why I came out so strong so early is I believe that we, I, have no earthly idea what the market reaction would have been if suddenly the perception is that the Fed chair serves at the pleasure of the President, right?”
Tillis also called the administration’s efforts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook “sophomoric.” However, the senator said he is “already impressed” with Warsh.
– Karee Venema
Karee Venema
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.
Trump nominated Warsh in January
After months of speculation — and years of criticizing his last pick — President Donald Trump announced on January 30 that he would nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair when his term ends.
Trump had been reviewing several candidates before he made his official announcement.
“I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,’ and he will never let you down.”
– David Dittman
Who is Kevin Warsh?
Kevin Warsh was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.
Markets see Warsh as a source of stability should Trump continue to pressure the central bank. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011.
He was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.
He’s currently a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.
Warsh is widely viewed as a “hawk” on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.
At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.
Warsh said in mid-2025 that “the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential,” adding “that doesn’t mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does.”
Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.
– David Dittman
David Dittman
David Dittman is the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster and the former editorial director of Investing Daily, Charles Street Research, and Weiss Ratings. A former stockbroker, David has been working in financial media for more than 20 years.
