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Stocks sagged ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate after President Donald Trump rejected a peace offer from Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz. Central banks around the world are still waiting to see how the war in the Middle East will impact inflation and thus their respective policies on interest rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 8-4 to keep the fed funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. “Inflation is elevated,” the FOMC said in its policy statement, “in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”
As for what comes next, the statement suggests the FOMC will build on its last move, a quarter-point cut in December: “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
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We haven’t seen four dissents from a Fed decision since October 1992. Fed Governor Stephen Miran has favored cutting rates to boost growth since he joined the board in September.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remain focused on inflation, noting they “did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”
During what is likely his final post-FOMC meeting press conference as Fed chair, Jerome Powell said he intends to remain on the board after his term as the head of the central bank expires on May 15.
“I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality,” Powell said, “and I stand by that. I’m encouraged by recent developments, and I’m watching the remaining steps in this process carefully.”
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Powell added that his “decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve.”
Earlier on Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 in favor of Kevin Warsh’s confirmation to succeed Powell, with a date for a final vote in the full Senate still pending.
You can track news and developments around the April Fed meeting on our live blog.
Crude oil and the earnings calendar
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 7.9% to $107.79 per barrel after Trump rejected a proposal to lift the U.S. blockade in exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz.
In an interview with Axios, Trump said he’ll maintain the blockade until Iran agrees to negotiate about its nuclear program. WTI is up 60.8% since the start of the war in the Middle East between the U.S., Israel and Iran.
A big week on the earnings calendar includes Chevron (CVX, +2.0%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, +2.7%) before the opening bell on Friday. BP (BP, +1.0%) offered a preview of how the energy shock is treating oil and gas supermajors when it beat profit estimates and raised guidance on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, four of the Magnificent 7 stocks will report earnings this evening, including Alphabet (GOOGL, +0.04%), Amazon.com (AMZN, +1.3%), Meta Platforms (META, +0.5%) and Microsoft (MSFT, -1.2%).
At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6% at 48,861, and the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.04% to 7,135. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied late to post a 0.04% gain to 24,673.
When the chips are up
Management of the semiconductor stock expects second-quarter revenue growth of 17.9% and EPS growth 28.7%.
“Our growth reflects sustained investment, disciplined execution, and growing customer adoption of our differentiated portfolio, particularly in industrial and automotive processing that supports software-defined vehicles and physical AI,” CEO Rafael Sotomayor said.
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland reiterated his Neutral (Hold) rating but raised his 12-month target price on NXPI from $210 to $250, noting that demand signals are improving across all of its end markets and citing management’s double-digit growth expectations.
“While the company’s ‘accelerated growth drivers’ are driving much of this near-term growth,” Rolland observes, “management nonetheless stressed that visibility was also broadening into their core business.”
V gets a big victory
Visa reported EPS of $3.31 (+19.9% year over year) on revenue of $11.23 billion (+17.1% YoY) vs a Wall Street forecast for $3.10 on $10.75 billion.
“Consumer spending remained resilient,” CEO Ryan McInerney (pdf) said in a statement announcing the results. At the same time, the CEO cited the integration of agentic AI and stablecoin capabilities into its Visa-as-a-Service stack “to further strengthen our position as the leading hyperscaler of payments globally.”
Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price from $411 to $415 after the report, noting that Visa beat and raised despite a volatile macro environment.
“The durability of Visa’s network remains underappreciated,” the analyst writes, “with strength across VAS, cross-border and card spending.” Faucette adds that agentic AI and stablecoin “are proving to be early growth vectors vs disintermediation risks.”
